string(13) "dissertations"

Time series forecasting has been a standard task of time series analysis. Until recently, purely neural methods for time series forecasting were considered sub-optimal in comparison to well known statistical methods (like ARIMA or Vector AutoRegression) or hybrid ones. However, recently an avalanche of deep learning methods for time series forecasting has appeared, claiming to outperform previous state-of-the-art methods.

For this thesis, the candidate will develop a benchmark suite for time series forecasting with various methods, such as rolling mean, ARIMA, LSTM, Temporal Fusion Transformer, DeepAR, NBeats, Graph Neural Networks, Moirai/TimeGPT. The methods will be compared for their accuracy and performance in the task of uni- and multi-variate forecasting for multiple horizons.

Bibliography:

  • Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos. Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3rd
  • Miller, John A., Mohammed Aldosari, Farah Saeed, Nasid Habib Barna, Subas Rana, I. Budak Arpinar, and Ninghao Liu. “A survey of deep learning and foundation models for time series forecasting.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.13912 (2024).
  • Benidis, Konstantinos, Syama Sundar Rangapuram, Valentin Flunkert, Yuyang Wang, Danielle Maddix, Caner Turkmen, Jan Gasthaus et al. “Deep learning for time series forecasting: Tutorial and literature survey.” ACM Computing Surveys 55, no. 6 (2022): 1-36.
  • Challu, Cristian, Kin G. Olivares, Boris N. Oreshkin, Federico Garza Ramirez, Max Mergenthaler Canseco, and Artur Dubrawski. “Nhits: Neural hierarchical interpolation for time series forecasting.” In Proceedings of the AAAI conference on artificial intelligence, vol. 37, no. 6, pp. 6989-6997. 2023.
  • Ekambaram, Vijay, Arindam Jati, Nam Nguyen, Phanwadee Sinthong, and Jayant Kalagnanam. “Tsmixer: Lightweight mlp-mixer model for multivariate time series forecasting.” In Proceedings of the 29th ACM SIGKDD conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, pp. 459-469. 2023.

Deliverable (besides the thesis itself): A Python library (possibly using other libraries) running and comparing multiple time series forecasting methods. The process should be highly automated.

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